Oxford Economics forecast GCC growth of 4.4% for 2026 in its November 2025 outlook, citing strong domestic demand, accelerating non-oil sector activity across all six member states, and a supportive credit environment as Gulf central banks followed global interest rate trends. That forecast has since been revised: ICAEW–Oxford Economics now projects a 2.4% contraction for the GCC in 2026, with a rebound to 8.1% growth in 2027, citing regional conflict disrupting energy exports, tourism and trade. The IMF has separately cut its regional growth forecast to 1.1%.
The GCC’s combined GDP now exceeds USD 2.1 trillion annually, making the bloc a significant weight in the global economy and a critical trade partner for Europe, Asia and North America, a status further reinforced by the recent UK-GCC Free Trade Agreement, the first such deal between the Gulf bloc and a G7 nation.
Country-by-Country Growth Picture
Growth across the GCC in 2026 is broad-based, with all six member economies expected to expand:
- UAE: the Central Bank of the UAE projected 5.6% in an earlier outlook, driven by financial services, trade and technology, but cut that forecast to 1.7% in its June 2026 Quarterly Economic Report
- Oman: 4.4%, IMF-backed forecast; structural beneficiary of Gulf trade realignment
- Saudi Arabia: 3–4.5%, non-oil sector outperforming, Vision 2030 investment driving construction and services
- Qatar: Stable, LNG revenues and tourism expansion supporting diversified growth
- Kuwait: Gradual recovery, government spending and banking sector supporting momentum
- Bahrain: Moderate, financial services and UK-GCC FTA create new growth channels
Credit Growth: A Key Engine
Oxford Economics highlights credit growth as one of the most important near-term drivers of GCC economic momentum. Access to financial services is expected to grow across the region in 2026 as Gulf central banks reduce interest rates in line with the US Federal Reserve’s trajectory, reducing borrowing costs for businesses and households. UAE banking sector credit has already grown 17.9% in the past 12 months, while Saudi Arabia’s SAMA has reported double-digit credit growth in the corporate lending segment.
Non-Oil Diversification Delivering Results
The most significant structural story across the GCC in 2026 is the accelerating contribution of non-oil sectors to overall GDP. In Saudi Arabia, financial services grew 5.4% in Q1 2026, its fastest pace in recent memory. In the UAE, non-oil foreign trade surpassed AED 2,530 billion in the first nine months of 2025. In Qatar, tourism hit 5.1 million visitors in 2025 and 1.13 million in Q1 2026 alone. These are not cyclical bounces, they represent structural shifts that Vision 2030, UAE D33, and Qatar National Vision 2030 have been building toward for a decade.
For businesses and investors with GCC exposure, the 2026 macro picture is one of broad-based, multi-country growth with improving fundamentals across most major sectors.
Also Read: UK-GCC Free Trade Agreement: First G7 Nation Seals Gulf Deal Worth £3.7 Billion a Year
Also Read: Saudi Arabia Q1 2026 GDP Grows 3%: Financial Services Lead
