The UAE Central Bank projected the country’s economy would expand by 5.6% in 2026 in an earlier outlook, citing a surging banking sector, accelerating non-oil trade and sustained investment momentum. The bank has since revised that forecast down to 1.7% in its June 2026 Quarterly Economic Report; the IMF has separately cut its own UAE forecast to 3.1%. The banking-sector figures below are measured results, not forecasts, and are unaffected: the financial system’s total assets exceed AED 5.472 trillion.
The Central Bank’s latest economic report, which covers performance data through early 2026, shows the UAE’s diversification strategy delivering measurable results across banking, trade and business formation, with the non-oil sector projected to expand at 5.3% in 2026, faster than the headline GDP figure.
Banking Sector Reaches AED 5.47 Trillion
Total banking sector assets rose 1.1% in February 2026 to exceed AED 5.472 trillion, achieving regional leadership across the Middle East and North Africa and reflecting the UAE’s position as the Gulf’s primary financial hub. Total credit extended by UAE banks increased 1.2% to AED 2.63 trillion, driven by lending to the real estate, construction, manufacturing and trade sectors.
The banking sector’s 17.9% growth in the credit portfolio over the past 12 months reflects the strength of domestic demand, the expansion of UAE-based SMEs and the continued draw of foreign investment into the country’s financial system.
Non-Oil Trade Hits AED 2,530 Billion
The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade of goods in the first nine months of 2025 rose 24.6% year-on-year to AED 2,530 billion, a figure that underscores the country’s role as one of the world’s leading re-export hubs. Non-oil exports grew 45% year-on-year over the same period, while re-exports advanced 13%, reflecting the diversification of UAE manufacturing and the expansion of its trade facilitation infrastructure.
Jebel Ali Port remains the anchor of this trade performance, handling the majority of containerised goods transiting between Asia, Europe and Africa through the UAE.
Top Credit Ratings Maintained
International rating agencies continue to affirm the UAE’s financial strength. Moody’s has reaffirmed the UAE’s Aa2 rating with a stable outlook, while S&P Global Ratings maintains the country’s AA/A-1+ rating, among the highest sovereign ratings in the Middle East and placing the UAE alongside major advanced economies in terms of perceived creditworthiness.
For businesses operating in the UAE, these ratings translate into lower borrowing costs, easier access to international capital markets, and a stable operating environment underpinned by a strong regulatory and monetary policy framework. For investors, the Central Bank’s 5.6% growth forecast, if realised, would place the UAE among the fastest-growing major economies globally in 2026.
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Primary sources: the UAE Government portal on finance and investment and the UAE Government portal.
