Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects have hit a hard 2030 reality check. The Line — originally a 170km linear city for 9 million people — is being delivered far smaller and slower: reporting in 2024–2025 pointed to a first phase of roughly 2.4km rather than 170km, and by 2025 the PIF had suspended construction work and written down billions from NEOM. The ambition survives; the timeline and scale have been recalibrated toward what can actually be built.
What has actually changed at NEOM and The Line?
The Line was unveiled in 2021 as a 170km, twin-skyscraper city stretching to Tabuk and housing 9 million residents. By 2024, Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reporting indicated the first phase would be closer to 2.4km, with only a small central segment realistically targeted by 2030 and full completion pushed toward 2045. In 2025 the picture hardened: the PIF suspended construction work, and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund wrote down around $8 billion tied to major projects including NEOM. Reporting in 2026 suggested construction of The Line was delayed until at least after 2030.
This is a recalibration, not an abandonment. We tracked the shift in detail in our report on how NEOM was restructured in 2026 with The Line suspended and Oxagon’s port advancing.
How much do the giga-projects cost?
Costs are the crux of the reality check. Early estimates for The Line ranged from $100–200 billion, but a 2023 internal board presentation reported by the Wall Street Journal put the full concept at an eye-watering $8.8 trillion, with roughly $370 billion needed for the initial phase by 2035. Numbers of that magnitude, against a backdrop of oil prices below budget assumptions, forced prioritisation.
The Line: plan versus 2026 reality
| Metric | Original 2021 plan | 2026 reality |
|---|---|---|
| Length | 170 km | ~2.4 km first phase reported |
| Population target | 9 million | Sharply scaled back |
| By 2030 | Substantial city | Small segment; full build toward 2045 |
| Status 2025 | Under construction | Construction work suspended by PIF |
Why did the reset happen?
Three forces converged. First, oil revenue has run below the level needed to fund every giga-project simultaneously, straining the PIF’s ability to bankroll them all at once. Second, construction reality — labour, logistics and engineering at unprecedented scale — collided with launch-day timelines. Third, priorities shifted toward projects with nearer-term returns, such as tourism and events, over the most speculative concepts. The recalibration echoes the wider trimming we covered when Saudi Arabia scaled back Red Sea resorts and refocused its giga-projects on realistic delivery.
Importantly, Vision 2030’s core is progressing even as headline projects shrink. The non-oil economy is growing, the PIF’s assets have climbed toward $925 billion, and tourism and financial services are expanding. The giga-projects were always the most visible, most fragile part of the plan — not its foundation.
What should investors and contractors watch now?
The reset changes what the giga-projects are worth paying attention to. For contractors, the opportunity has shifted from the speculative megastructures toward the deliverable layer: airports, ports such as Oxagon, hospitality, roads and the utilities that any real city needs first. These carry clearer scopes and firmer funding than a 170km skyscraper. For investors, the signal to track is cash discipline — how the PIF sequences spending across NEOM, the Red Sea, Qiddiya and Diriyah rather than funding all at once, and whether it increasingly draws in foreign co-investment and debt instead of shouldering every project alone. The honest read is that Saudi Arabia is moving from an era of announcement to an era of accounting. Projects that survive the reprioritisation with real budgets and near-term revenue are the ones worth backing; the rendering-stage concepts are not. That is a healthier basis for capital than the original moonshot promised.
Frequently asked questions
Is NEOM cancelled?
No. NEOM has been restructured and rescoped rather than cancelled. Some elements, such as Oxagon’s port, are advancing, while The Line’s most ambitious targets have been delayed and scaled back.
How long will The Line be by 2030?
Far shorter than the original 170km. Reporting points to a first phase of around 2.4km, with only a limited segment realistically completed by 2030 and full build pushed toward 2045.
Did Saudi Arabia write down NEOM?
Yes. In 2025 the Public Investment Fund suspended construction work and its sovereign fund wrote down around $8 billion linked to major projects including NEOM.
Does this mean Vision 2030 has failed?
No. The giga-projects are the most speculative part of Vision 2030. The broader diversification — non-oil GDP growth, tourism and finance — continues to progress.
Bottom line: Saudi Arabia has quietly swapped spectacle for delivery. The Line and NEOM are smaller and later than promised, and multi-billion-dollar write-downs confirm the reset. Judged as a diversification programme rather than a set of skyline renderings, Vision 2030 is adapting — which may prove more durable than the original moonshot.
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